Turkish Housing Market VECM Analysis (2014–2024)

Our econometric analysis reveals that Türkiye’s housing market is significantly shaped by macroeconomic variables such as inflation, exchange rates, and construction costs. For instance, the long-run model shows that every 1-point increase in rental prices leads to a 1.4-point rise in the House Price Index (HPI), making rental dynamics a powerful predictor of property value trends. Meanwhile, foreign housing demand—particularly through Türkiye’s citizenship-by-investment program—emerged as a critical driver of sustained price growth, especially in cities like Istanbul and Antalya. By forecasting HPI through 2029, we help investors anticipate market shifts and strategize effectively in a volatile economic landscape.