Homogram | Industry Analysis Insight | April 2025
Green Bubbles Reveal Data-Driven Shifts in Market Strategy
In today’s competitive landscape, brands aren’t just enhancing the experiences of their users—they’re also subtly altering the experiences of those who don’t use their products. A compelling example is Apple’s iMessage system. When an iPhone user texts an Android user, the message shows up as a green bubble—harmless at first glance, but highly symbolic in today’s social context.
Figure 1 illustrates two types of messaging interactions on iPhones. Panel (a) shows an iMessage conversation between two iPhones, where messages appear as blue bubbles. In contrast, Panel (b) depicts an SMS exchange, with messages shown as green bubbles. Although SMS can occur between iPhones, it is not the default setting and is mainly linked with messaging between an iPhone and an Android device. The images are sourced from Apple Support (2024).
Figure 1. Blue versus Green Bubbles on iPhones
A 2025 study from the National Bureau of Economic Research reveals just how powerful this minor design choice is in shaping user behavior and market dynamics:
Figure 2 visualizes the social, economic, and behavioral impact of Apple’s green bubble feature, based on the study on average, iPhone users are willing to pay $49 to prevent their messages from appearing as green, demonstrating the monetary value placed on digital identity. Here are the key insights from the study:
- 90% of students believe green bubbles create social stigma.
- 79% of Android users want green bubbles removed.
- 66% of iPhone users also prefer unified message bubbles.
- Removing green bubbles increases Android demand by 46%, signaling a major market shift potential.
Figure 2. Consumer Reactions to Green Bubbles and Market Impact
The data highlights that even small product design choices—like message color—can have large-scale implications for consumer psychology and brand dominance.
Strategic Takeaway for Brands
What we see here is the power of non-user utility—how a company can gain market power not by serving its users better, but by making life harder for non-users. This extends far beyond tech. Whether it’s fear of missing out (FOMO) on social media, exclusivity in fashion drops, or disappearing content in dating apps, companies are designing friction and exclusion into products to lock in dominance.
At Homogram, we help you look beyond the obvious. We study hidden psychological levers that shape consumer choices. Because often, what your brand says about those who don’t use it is just as revealing as what it offers to those who do.